War and drought threaten agricultural season in Sudan, increasing possibility of widespread famine

The expansion of the Sudanese war is threatening the summer agricultural season, which increases the chances of the country falling into famine that could affect about 18 million people.

The summer season begins in mid-May/Iyar, the rainy season in the state of Gedaref near the border with Ethiopia, which produces about 40 percent of Sudan's grain crop.

But with the disruption of the state apparatus, including the banking system and the supply chains, as a result of the war, the season faces challenges on top of the already existing ones.

“The war caused major distortions in the productive structure of the agricultural sector, both plant and animal, especially in areas of intense conflict in Khartoum state, but the productive sector in all countries has been paralyzed,” according to a statement issued by the Arab Organization for Agricultural Development (AOAD) in May.

Summer is considered the biggest and most important season in achieving food security in Sudan and the countries of the region surrounding Sudan. 

During the summer, Sudanese farmers produce cereals, mainly maize, millet, oilseeds, summer legumes, and cash crops that provide food and livelihoods for many Sudanese.

Usually, farmers, especially those working in the rain-fed sector, begin the operations of preparing the land and purchasing improved seeds in May, after obtaining the necessary funding from the governmental Agricultural Bank, which has not been possible to do so far this season.

Rescue call

The UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) announced its immediate plan to assist more than one million vulnerable farmers and their families (totaling five million people) between now and the end of July with cereal seeds (sorghum, millet) and okra seeds for planting from June to July 2023 in 14 states in the country.

This came as part of the FAO's plan to bring in a budget of $95.4 million to reach 15 million people through several life-saving interventions, including providing farmers with seeds and agricultural equipment, as well as protecting and restocking herders' livestock. 

Not just war

Not only does war threaten the summer agricultural season, but also the expected lack of rain, according to experts.

In comments to Jusoor Post, Sudanese agricultural expert Abu Bakr Ahmed said that the expectations of the current rainy season make things worse.

“The current season tends to be dry, except in the areas of the Nuba Mountains, southern Blue Nile, and far north Darfur, where it will witness an above-average rainy season. Most of Sudan's states will have an average rainfall of less than 500 mm,” he said.

“The states of Kassala and Gedaref (eastern Sudan) will often witness less than average rain in June (the beginning of the agricultural season), and vice versa for all the states of Sudan south of Khartoum,” Abu Bakr added.

With the current conflict situation adding to the weak expected rains, Abu Bakr believes that the summer season in the irrigated projects, such as Al-Jazeera, Al-Rahad, Al-Suki, and New Halfa, will suffer from a shortage of irrigation water with the possibility of an increase in conflict over the Nile water sources.